Nonfiction

Czarny łabędź. Jak nieprzewidywalne zdarzenia rządzą naszym życiem

Czarny łabędź. Jak nieprzewidywalne zdarzenia rządzą naszym życiem

  • Downloads：4636
  • Type：Epub+TxT+PDF+Mobi
  • Create Date：2021-04-05 14:53:28
  • Update Date：2025-09-06
  • Status：finish
  • Author：Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • ISBN：8382020143
  • Environment：PC/Android/iPhone/iPad/Kindle
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Summary

NAJBARDZIEJ PROROCZA KSIĄŻKA XXI WIEKU！

Co łączy wynalazek wynalazek koła， zagładę Pompejów， krach na Wall Street， Harry'ego Pottera i Internet？ Dlaczego wszyscy prognostycy są oszustami？ Co miłośnicy Katarzyny Wielkiej mogą nam powiedzieć o prawdopodobieństwie？ Dlaczego nigdy nie powinieneś gonić ruszającego pociągu ani wierzyć codziennym gazetom？

Bestsellerowa książka Nassima Nicholasa Taleba analizuje zjawisko Czarnych Łabędzi: niespodziewanych wydarzeń， które spadają na nas nagle i odciskają ogromne piętno na naszym życiu。 Czy to będzie wybuch I wojny światowej， dojście Hitlera do władzy， zamachy z 11 września 2001 roku w Nowym Jorku， kryzys finansowy 2008 roku czy aktualna pandemia koronawirusa Covid-19， wydarzenia te całkowicie zmieniają podstawy naszego życia。 Ich wpływ na los świata jest ogromny， ale są niemożliwe do przewidzenia， dopiero po ich wystąpieniu staramy się je zracjonalizować。

"Połączenie niskiej przewidywalności i znacznych skutków dla otaczającej rzeczywistości czyni Czarnego Łabędzia wielką zagadką" - pisze Nassim Nicholas Taleb。 I proponuje czytelnikowi rozwiązanie tej zagadki。 Jego książka to niezmiernie ważna lektura dla wszystkich， którzy chcą żyć świadomie w dzisiejszym， pełnym niepewności i niebezpieczeństw， szybko zmieniającym się świecie。

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Reviews

Walter Polashenski ，

Jerks are not necessarily wrong。 And I think this is the case here。 But we wish they were wrong。。。I would find this very interesting topic much more interesting and compelling if the author were not so arrogantly dismissive of others。 He falls so easily into the traps he dismisses: confirmation， worship of experts （ he respects at least）。 Still， there is something to his argument。 I hope we learn from it。

Harshil Mehta ，

There was a belief in the West that Swans are white。 It became false in a second when the Australia was discovered and black swan was found。 So， unexpected tiny events can destabilize thousand-year-old system。This， Taleb identifies， as The Black Swan effect and this book revolves around randomness， uncertainty and such impacts。 We know little about the world than we pretend to know， Taleb emphasizes。 Though initially written in a language which can be understood， it becomes too technical wrt sta There was a belief in the West that Swans are white。 It became false in a second when the Australia was discovered and black swan was found。 So， unexpected tiny events can destabilize thousand-year-old system。This， Taleb identifies， as The Black Swan effect and this book revolves around randomness， uncertainty and such impacts。 We know little about the world than we pretend to know， Taleb emphasizes。 Though initially written in a language which can be understood， it becomes too technical wrt stastistics in the last chapters。 Anyway， the book is recommended。 Go for it and change your view！ 。。。more

Poza słowami ，

DNF。。。。。Nie dam rady dalej;） przykro mi。

ARTURO LOPEZ ，

Un tema por demás interesante， pero dentro de un libro lleno de autoelogio。

Servabo Fidem ，

Before the discovery of Australia， people in the Old World were convinced that all swans were white， an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence。 The sighting of the first black swan might have been an interesting surprise for a few ornithologists （and oth­ ers extremely concerned with the coloring of birds）， but that is not where the significance of the story lies。 It illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from observations or experience and the fragi Before the discovery of Australia， people in the Old World were convinced that all swans were white， an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence。 The sighting of the first black swan might have been an interesting surprise for a few ornithologists （and oth­ ers extremely concerned with the coloring of birds）， but that is not where the significance of the story lies。 It illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from observations or experience and the fragility of our knowl­ edge。 One single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans。 All you need is one single black bird。 。。。more

Andrew Yodis ，

Repeats thoughts from prior book。 Did you wish for more anecdotes about how impressive Taleb is， then here is the book for you。 For somebody so concerned about the limits of our knowledge， he proclaims “facts” about life without any proof or analysis。 He will criticize a Nobel prize winning who conducted research in economics by analogy to someone thinking the Atkins diet is successful when Taleb knows the healthiest diet is Mediterranean。 His ideas against bell curve and the probability of impr Repeats thoughts from prior book。 Did you wish for more anecdotes about how impressive Taleb is， then here is the book for you。 For somebody so concerned about the limits of our knowledge， he proclaims “facts” about life without any proof or analysis。 He will criticize a Nobel prize winning who conducted research in economics by analogy to someone thinking the Atkins diet is successful when Taleb knows the healthiest diet is Mediterranean。 His ideas against bell curve and the probability of improbable events is useful and fascinating if only a humbler and self aware writer was discussing it。 。。。more

Francisco ，

Really， a Black Swan for meThis book provided me with a entirely new way to see the things around me， even my own way of living。 I had been forecasting and making my numbers thinking life is under a normal distribution of events， following a Gaussian vision and this book shows me is foolishness， we can't predict the future but be prepared for those events that can change our world for good， without warning， beyond our pretentious little wisdom。 I really learn here that big adjustments should be Really， a Black Swan for meThis book provided me with a entirely new way to see the things around me， even my own way of living。 I had been forecasting and making my numbers thinking life is under a normal distribution of events， following a Gaussian vision and this book shows me is foolishness， we can't predict the future but be prepared for those events that can change our world for good， without warning， beyond our pretentious little wisdom。 I really learn here that big adjustments should be made and to get a "stoic" way of life。 。。。more

Christine Woods ，

While the points Taleb makes are interesting and well reasoned， his editorializing and commentary beyond the actual principles are insufferable。 He manages to condescend to almost everyone， excepting Mandelbrot and other dead academics and philosophers。 His personal history and education give a narrative context to the conclusions he's drawn， but what an arrogant prat he's become from those experiences。 He seems to lack a shred of humility， constantly deriding economists， mathematicians， financi While the points Taleb makes are interesting and well reasoned， his editorializing and commentary beyond the actual principles are insufferable。 He manages to condescend to almost everyone， excepting Mandelbrot and other dead academics and philosophers。 His personal history and education give a narrative context to the conclusions he's drawn， but what an arrogant prat he's become from those experiences。 He seems to lack a shred of humility， constantly deriding economists， mathematicians， financial analysts， philosophers， physicists--every time he claims an education in one field， he then places himself smugly above those poor fools who actually believe it。 No one， it seems （with the exception of the late Mandelbrot） is so wise and far seeing as he。 The arguments he makes are fascinating， but the voice was so off-putting that it's knocked from five to two stars in my book。 It was a struggle to finish。 。。。more

Binati Sheth ，

This is a great book （just look past the gargantuan ego of the author）。 You will go down many a rabbit holes while reading this book。

Hakim ，

NNT elaborates the concept of the incomputable but high-impact phenomenon of the black swan。 Amazed at the way he presented a very technical idea narratively。 Like the previous book （Antifragile） he used another fiction character which gave a glimpse of NNT personal life （？） Either way， this is a solid read。

Abhishek Jain ，

Couldn't read the entire book。 Unnecessarily complicated language makes it a tiresome read。 Mr。 Taleb is knowledgeable on his subject and this book could have been an academic one but it is not a book you can just pick up and read。 Couldn't read the entire book。 Unnecessarily complicated language makes it a tiresome read。 Mr。 Taleb is knowledgeable on his subject and this book could have been an academic one but it is not a book you can just pick up and read。 。。。more

Lucas Graboski ，

The only explanation for the brilliance of this book is that Taleb must be a time traveller from the future

Rob Folkenberg III ，

The Black Swan is about the impact of the highly improbable events on world history， economics， and daily life。 Taleb is an economist， trader， reader， and "empirical scientist" who applies his life experience to what he believes is a huge fault in modern thinking - the tendency we have to disregard the effects that random， unforeseeable things have on many arenas of life。 Black swans were considered impossible until the first one was seen， and that event totally changed the paradigm of what a sw The Black Swan is about the impact of the highly improbable events on world history， economics， and daily life。 Taleb is an economist， trader， reader， and "empirical scientist" who applies his life experience to what he believes is a huge fault in modern thinking - the tendency we have to disregard the effects that random， unforeseeable things have on many arenas of life。 Black swans were considered impossible until the first one was seen， and that event totally changed the paradigm of what a swan was。 Events such as the invention of the internet， COVID-19， stock market crashes， and more were history-shifting， and truly unpredictable even though historians retrospectively give reasons for them happening （with questionable accuracy）。 In a quirky， witty way Taleb challenges the most basic of assumptions taken by both historians and economists today， suggesting that we must consider possible outliers in order to protect ourselves against the negative consequences and also benefit as much as possible from these sorts of events。Opinion: I enjoyed the writing style of the book - it's unique， witty， sarcastic， dry， and engaging。 Taleb has a fascinating set of skills and backgrounds that he draws on。 I enjoyed his lingo， including made up words to describe paradigms words like "extremistan" and "mediocristan。" I listened to this book over the course of several weeks， and struggled to follow all the details。 If I missed a key concept， I would be lost because of how Taleb refers back to examples and concepts extensively。 I can say for certain that I didn't grasp all of the points of this book， but I came away with several paradigm shifts and applications for my life:My takeaways:1。 Invest in "scalable" opportunities。 These are jobs， opportunities， and realities that can expand exponentially without any added effort。 Through luck， the same book you wrote might move from a few hundred readers to several million， with no more work on your part！2。 Position yourself to benefit from positive black swans。 Use a small part of your income to speculate - you might get lucky！ Take opportunities that come your way - be flexible - random encounters （or providential ones） may be the best path to great success。3。 Connected to the previous item， don't overstructure。 Don't plan your day so full that you can't explore unexpected opportunities， or escape unexpected problems。 Also， don't over-articulate your paradigms， plans and beliefs so much that you close your mind to new knowledge or insights。4。 Do things！ Step out into the unknown， for you might get lucky！5。 Having more information doesn't always give better chance of success。 This is proven through studies with traders in the book。 Gather information， but don't wait forever or be under the illusion that with enough information you'll be able to predict what will happen。 。。。more

Kristupas ，

I would highly recommend this to anyone， who is critically minded。Educating， well-written， and not boring！ Now I want to read and have ordered the whole incerto series。

Leonid ，

Несколько раз начинал читать， но все никак не продвигался。 Первая треть книги довольно скучна， но вот дальше， ближе к практической части начинается самое интересное， полезное и реально применимое в бизнесе и жизни。 Книга расширяет кругозор и позволяет осознавать многие процессы совершенно с другой стороны。

Matt Brown ，

Taleb’s writing style gets in the way of explaining an important topic。 He feels the need to name drop （and give an opinion on） every philosopher， author， and scientist he can think of。

Klyemann ，

It seems to me that whatever you read on the topic of flaws in our thinking there is bound to be a reference to The Black Swan， so it was only a matter of time before I had to pick up this book。The book is not short and the author can be a bit too sure of himself， but the basic idea will truly change the way you see the world。 And any book that has so much impact on the best minds of a generation is justifiably considered a classic。

Hrvoje ，

1。5/5

Morteza Noori ，

این کتاب عالیه و یکی از بهترین کتابها در نگرش من به زندگی بودThis book was great and influenced in my life

Sofie Phan ，

Đối với những bạn học kinh tế hoặc các bạn yêu thích môn toán， xác suất thống kê thì có vẻ quyển này sẽ phù hợp và tạo được cho các bạn sự hứng thú nhiều hơn。 Còn về một con thuần những môn xã hội như mình thì quyển sách chỉ nên dừng ở hết phần 1。Mình bị cuốn hút ở phần giới thiệu nhưng vào phần nội dung thì。。。phải kiên nhẫn lắm mới đọc hết phần 1。Tác giả có lối viết khá độc đáo， đưa ví dụ nhiều （đến mức không cần thiết）。 Ông kể chuyện nhiều và đôi khi làm mình mất kiên nhẫn kinh khủng。 Tuy nhiê Đối với những bạn học kinh tế hoặc các bạn yêu thích môn toán， xác suất thống kê thì có vẻ quyển này sẽ phù hợp và tạo được cho các bạn sự hứng thú nhiều hơn。 Còn về một con thuần những môn xã hội như mình thì quyển sách chỉ nên dừng ở hết phần 1。Mình bị cuốn hút ở phần giới thiệu nhưng vào phần nội dung thì。。。phải kiên nhẫn lắm mới đọc hết phần 1。Tác giả có lối viết khá độc đáo， đưa ví dụ nhiều （đến mức không cần thiết）。 Ông kể chuyện nhiều và đôi khi làm mình mất kiên nhẫn kinh khủng。 Tuy nhiên có đôi chỗ mình thấy ông cho quan điểm một chiều mà không hề có giải thích hay chứng minh。 Quyển này mình nghĩ nên thu gọn lại còn tầm 300-400 trang sẽ ổn hơn 。-。 。。。more

Deepak Palani ，

Black swan teaches you how to see risk with a new set of lenses。 And why the bell curve is not the ideal thing。

William Hillock ，

Listened to the audio book， would not recommend。Very heavy and technical， not easy to digest in audio form， but that could just be me。

Isaac Richards ，

For the first couple chapters I thought it possible I'd rate this book 5 stars， but from there， rehashing the same point creates diminishing returns。 Had the author stopped halfway through， I'd have given it 4 stars。 For the first couple chapters I thought it possible I'd rate this book 5 stars， but from there， rehashing the same point creates diminishing returns。 Had the author stopped halfway through， I'd have given it 4 stars。 。。。more

Fadwa ，

A very deep informative book， that answered lots of questions I had when I was studying Statistics。 It definitely discuss some critical issues based on experience in real world data/situations。 Which I had encountered while trying to make sense of all of the "assumptions" that were set before each theory 。。 while I ask myself 。。 what if my data did not fulfill all of these assumptions ？！and the rule of large numbers was always the answer because it is gonna get me back to the normal distribution A very deep informative book， that answered lots of questions I had when I was studying Statistics。 It definitely discuss some critical issues based on experience in real world data/situations。 Which I had encountered while trying to make sense of all of the "assumptions" that were set before each theory 。。 while I ask myself 。。 what if my data did not fulfill all of these assumptions ？！and the rule of large numbers was always the answer because it is gonna get me back to the normal distribution which answers everything。 "none sense" was my comment ALWAYS。 It is a must read for all researchers， despite the author's personality issues whos pretending to be French form a Greek village！！ 。。。more

Iulia Iosep ，

The best book I ever read！

Hadiana Sliwa ，

The book is great but it's too much long。 The book is great but it's too much long。 。。。more

TheMighty Zuru ，

Mind expanding and breaking away from generally accepted principles and practices of the society。

David Shirk ，

Really important concepts， delightful style and content， often hilarious， but at times painfully repetitive。 I used it to fall asleep at night。 I had a much easier time with fooled by randomness， which introduced the black swan concept， but didn’t go nearly as far in-depth。 I do find that I am reading financial publications through a much more critical lens now， which I always have， but now have a vocabulary to combat the false logic running rampant。

Kristie ，

Interesting ideas， but could not get past the pretentious-erudite tone that obfuscated said ideas to the point that every paragraph made me roll my eyes。 Also annoying was the author's holier-than-thou attitude towards watching TV/consuming mainstream media （to paraphrase， "I haven't watched TV for 10 years and that makes me smarter than everyone else in the room"） and his definition of success （fame & fortune）。 Like， I got the gist: people should be more aware of the lack of predictability in t Interesting ideas， but could not get past the pretentious-erudite tone that obfuscated said ideas to the point that every paragraph made me roll my eyes。 Also annoying was the author's holier-than-thou attitude towards watching TV/consuming mainstream media （to paraphrase， "I haven't watched TV for 10 years and that makes me smarter than everyone else in the room"） and his definition of success （fame & fortune）。 Like， I got the gist: people should be more aware of the lack of predictability in the world and of the drastic impact of black swans， etc。 But I'd rather learn more about these ideas from someone who isn't so self-congratulatory and who would likely look down his nose at someone like me。 。。。more

Андрей Гурин ，

Классный， сложный

Reference

google book https://www.google.com/search?tbm=bks&q=Czarny łabędź. Jak nieprzewidywalne zdarzenia rządzą naszym życiem

hathitrust digital library https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/ls?q1=Czarny łabędź. Jak nieprzewidywalne zdarzenia rządzą naszym życiem&field1=ocr&a=srchls&ft=ft&lmt=ft

The British Library https://bll01.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/search?query=any,contains,Czarny łabędź. Jak nieprzewidywalne zdarzenia rządzą naszym życiem&tab=LibraryCatalog&search_scope=Not_BL_Suppress&vid=44BL_INST:BLL01&lang=en&offset=0